Informing Citizen Security Policy: An Evidence Gap Map on Policing Interventions - Dataset

By Knowledge and Learning Division (VPS/VPS/KLD); Citizen Security Division (VPS/IFD/CIS)

Citizen security is a critical development challenge for low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—a region where crime and violence remain disproportionately high.

LAC continues to record homicide rates more than three times the global average (UNODC, 2023; InSight Crime, 2024), with estimated social and economic costs reaching 3.4% of the region’s GDP (IDB, 2024).

Reducing global crime levels could increase LAC’s annual GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points (IMF, 2023).

Mapping Evidence on Policing Effectiveness

This Evidence Gap Map (EGM) compiles and classifies existing impact evaluations and systematic reviews of police-led interventions targeting:

  • Crime reduction
  • Violence prevention
  • Public disorder control
  • Insecurity mitigation
  • Risk factor reduction

Unlike previous evidence maps that focus narrowly on specific policing strategies, this EGM adopts a broader scope—covering a wide range of intervention types, geographic settings, and security outcomes.

Access the EGM here

Informing Smarter Policing in LAC

By synthesizing rigorous evidence on what works, what doesn't, and where knowledge gaps exist, the EGM supports evidence-informed policing. It aims to:

  • Improve resource allocation in citizen security
  • Enhance the effectiveness of hot spots policing and other crime control strategies
  • Guide policymakers and practitioners in developing safer, more resilient communities
  • Strengthen the empirical foundation for public security investments

Developed for Impact and Transparency

This map was produced by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and peer-reviewed and visualized by the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie) in 2025. It reflects a cross-team collaboration and adheres to rigorous methodological standards.

Project Contributors:
Camilo Acosta, Sergio Britto Lima, Minji Kang, Indira Porto, Rodrigo Serrano Berthet, and Harold Villalba (alphabetical order)

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Metadata & use

Identifier https://doi.org/10.60966/sij240vu
License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Related Knowledge Product
Citation

Acosta, Camilo, et al. (2025). Informing Citizen Security Policy: An Evidence Gap Map on Policing Interventions - Dataset. IDB Open Data. https://doi.org/10.60966/sij240vu

Published date 2025-10-15
Modified date 2026-08-04
Tags/Keywords Policing · Citizen Security · Evidence · Literature · Gaps
Language
  1. English
Temporal coverage 1970-2025
Country
Argentina
Australia
Austria
Ireland
Israel
India
Sweden
Slovenia
El Salvador
Bolivia
Türkiye
France
Trinidad & Tobago
Ukraine
United States
Uruguay
Czechia
Venezuela
Switzerland
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
United Kingdom
Chile
Colombia
Denmark
Ecuador
Estonia
Spain
Finland
Greece
Guatemala
Honduras
Croatia
Hungary
Italy
Jamaica
Mexico
Belgium
Malaysia
Panama
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Costa Rica
Russia
Publisher
Inter-American Development Bank
Author
Acosta, Camilo
Britto-Lima, Sergio
Kang, Minji
Porto, Indira
Serrano Berthet, Rodrigo
Villalba, Harold
Data collection type Administrative Data
Data structure Structured Data
Data notes

What is the overall impact of concentrating police resources in high-crime areas?

Concentrating police resources in high-crime areas—commonly referred to as hot-spot policing—has been shown to reduce crime rates in targeted microgeographic zones.

The Evidence Gap Map (EGM) includes multiple impact evaluations and systematic reviews assessing the effectiveness of geographically focused policing strategies, including hotspot policing.

These studies generally report statistically significant reductions in crime, particularly in violent and property crimes, but provide inconsistent evidence of displacement to nearby areas. However, effectiveness varies depending on: the context implementation fidelity, and community engagement levels.

Does targeted police presence in crime hot spots actually reduce criminal activity?

Yes. The EGM includes robust empirical evidence—both randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental studies—demonstrating that targeted police presence in crime hot spots leads to measurable reductions in criminal activity.

Hot spots policing is one of the most frequently evaluated interventions in the dataset, with consistent findings supporting its effectiveness in reducing violence, property crime, and public disorder.

Empirical evidence on the efficacy of hot spots policing strategies?

The EGM synthesizes dozens of impact evaluations and systematic reviews on hot spot policing. These studies consistently demonstrate that concentrating police patrols in high-crime micro-locations reduces overall crime rates. Evaluated outcomes include: - homicides - assaults - robberies, and - public disorder. The evidence also explores whether crime is displaced to nearby areas or diffused, with mixed but generally favorable findings. The EGM highlights hotspot policing as one of the most evidence-based strategies in the field of citizen security.

What is the overall impact of concentrating police resources in high-crime areas?

Concentrating police resources in high-crime areas—commonly referred to as hot-spot policing—has been shown to reduce crime rates in targeted microgeographic zones.

The Evidence Gap Map (EGM) includes multiple impact evaluations and systematic reviews that assess the effectiveness of geographically focused policing strategies. These studies generally report statistically significant reductions in crime, particularly in violent and property crimes, but provide inconsistent evidence of displacement to nearby areas. Effectiveness varies depending on: - the context implementation fidelity, and community engagement.

Does targeted police presence in crime hot spots actually reduce criminal activity?

Yes. The EGM includes robust empirical evidence—both randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental studies—demonstrating that targeted police presence in crime hot spots leads to measurable reductions in criminal activity.

Hot spots policing is one of the most frequently evaluated interventions in the dataset, with consistent findings supporting its effectiveness in: reducing violence property crime, and public disorder.

Is there empirical evidence on the efficacy of hot spots policing strategies?

The EGM synthesizes dozens of impact evaluations and systematic reviews on hot spot policing. These studies consistently demonstrate that concentrating police patrols in high-crime micro-locations reduces overall crime rates.

Evaluated outcomes include: Homicides Assaults robberies, and public disturbance. The evidence also explores whether crime is displaced to nearby areas or diffused, with mixed but generally favorable findings.

What are the primary theoretical mechanisms explaining why hot spot policing is effective?

Hot spot policing is grounded in routine activity theory and deterrence theory.

The EGM includes studies that explain how increased police visibility and presence: disrupt criminal routines reduce opportunities for crime, and enhance perceived risk among offenders. These mechanisms are supported by empirical findings showing reductions in crime without significant displacement.

How do law enforcement agencies identify and define 'hot spots' for policing interventions?

Studies in the EGM show that hot spots are typically identified using geospatial crime data, often through: crime mapping Predictive analytics, or Historical incident clustering.

Definitions vary, but most interventions target small geographic units (e.g., street segments or blocks) with disproportionately high crime rates.

What specific police tactics are commonly employed in hot spots policing initiatives?

Common tactics include: directed patrols foot patrols vehicle patrols, and problem-oriented policing strategies. Some interventions incorporate community engagement, surveillance technologies, or deterrence messaging. The EGM documents variations in tactics across countries and contexts, with effectiveness often linked to implementation fidelity.

Does hot spots policing simply displace crime to nearby areas, rather than reducing it overall?

Displacement is a known concern; however, the EGM includes studies that show mixed results. Many evaluations report no significant displacement, and some even document diffusion of benefits—where crime reduction extends beyond the targeted area. Context and intervention design are key factors.

What is the relationship between problem-oriented policing and hot spot policing approaches?

The EGM includes evaluations of both strategies.

Problem-oriented policing (POP) often complements hot spots policing by addressing the underlying causes of crime in high-risk areas. While hot-spot policing focuses on geographic concentrations, POP emphasizes tailored responses to recurring problems. Combined approaches tend to yield stronger outcomes.

What is the impact of hot spot policing on community perceptions of safety and police legitimacy?

Several studies in the EGM assess community perceptions. Findings suggest that well-implemented hot spot policing can enhance perceived safety and trust in the police, particularly when combined with procedural justice and community engagement. However, aggressive tactics may erode legitimacy if not carefully managed.

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