Cost Simulation Tool for Long-Term Care Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean

By Health, Nutrition and Population Division (VPS/SCL/HNP)

This cost simulation tool helps governments in Latin America and the Caribbean estimate the costs of implementing long-term care systems. It also enables comparisons between service packages and generates projections over time, making it a valuable resource for policy design and planning for long-term care in Latin America.

The dataset includes:

  1. Population data
  2. Levels of care dependence
  3. Macroeconomic variables processed by simulation formulas

With these inputs, users can:

  1. Estimate the cost of implementing a long-term care system in 2020
  2. Compare the cost of up to two different long-term care service packages
  3. Project costs forward to 2025 and 2030

This tool provides governments and researchers with a practical way to evaluate options, compare scenarios, and anticipate future needs for long-term care in Latin America.

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Metadata & use

Identifier https://doi.org/10.60966/cjwr-7581
License Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivs 3.0 IGO
Related Knowledge Product
Citation

Medellín, Nadin (2020). Cost Simulation Tool for Long-Term Care Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean. IDB Open Data. https://doi.org/10.60966/cjwr-7581

Published date 2020-09-17
Modified date 2026-07-15
Tags/Keywords Aging · Care Dependence · Latin America And The Caribbean
Language
  1. English
Temporal coverage 2020-2020
Country
Argentina
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Trinidad & Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela
Region Latin America and the Caribbean
Publisher
Inter-American Development Bank
Author
Medellín, Nadin
Data collection type Observational Data
Data structure Semistructured Data
Data notes

What is the current state of long-term care in Latin America?

Formal long-term care systems are still emerging across the region. The dataset shows that most countries lack comprehensive infrastructure, and governments are only beginning to estimate costs and design service packages. The tool models scenarios for 2020, 2025, and 2030, highlighting the fiscal impact of introducing structured systems.

What are the aging population trends and demographic shifts in Latin America in 2024?

Population projections from the UN (2019) are embedded in the tool. For example, Argentina’s population aged 80+ is projected to grow from ~1.19 million in 2020 to ~1.55 million by 2030. Similar demographic shifts are modeled for all countries, showing a steady increase in older adults and care dependence rates.

How do Latin American governments fund long-term care for the elderly?

The tool models funding through public expenditure and user copayments. Copayments can be distributed by income quintile (e.g., 0% for the poorest, up to 50% for the richest). Governments are assumed to cover the remainder through public budgets.

What is the status of digital health and remote monitoring technology for senior care in LatAm?

Telecare is included as a service option, with modeled costs ($35 for mild, $70 for severe dependence per month). This reflects potential integration of remote monitoring into care packages.

What long-term care services are commonly available for older adults in Latin American countries?

The tool models five service types: residential care, personal home care, day centers, telecare, and respite services. These are treated as the core components of potential systems.

What is the rate of demographic and aging trends driving long-term care demand in Latin America?

The dataset shows steady growth in older age groups. For example, Brazil’s population aged 80+ is projected to rise from ~4.16 million in 2020 to ~6.54 million in 2030, driving demand for care services.

Why is access to long-term care limited in some Latin American countries?

Most countries lack formal systems and standardized cost data. The dataset explicitly notes that “there is no systematized information on the costs of long-term care services in the region.”

What is the status of home-based elder care providers and telehealth solutions in Latin America?

Personal home care and telecare are modeled as service options, with costs tied to the number of care hours and the severity of dependence. This reflects potential system design but not actual provider networks.

How do out-of-pocket costs and affordability of long-term care vary by income group and country in Latin America?

The dataset models copayments by income quintile. For example, in one scenario, the richest quintile pays 50% of service costs, while the poorest quintile pays 0%. This shows affordability gaps across income groups.

Dataset files

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Additional materials

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